Supply shocks & export rules

Uranium: the published production figures, as a model you can argue with. Take a producer offline, halve a quota or add your own tonnage, and concentration recomputes as you type.

What the uranium supply model does

Starts from published mine production, one line per producing country.
Change any country's output, or add your own tonnage.
Concentration, dependency and total supply recompute as you type.
Save the scenario and come back to it.

A free account runs 3 models a day. Professional is unlimited, with downloads.

What this model does and does not claim

The baseline is mine production as reported by the USGS, one parameter per producing jurisdiction, with the residual tail carried explicitly so that every share is computed against a complete denominator.

Concentration is measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index over production shares. It responds to the whole distribution rather than to an arbitrary cut-off, which matters here: splitting one dominant producer into two moves the index substantially and moves a top-three share hardly at all.

It is a model of where material is produced, not of what it costs or who can buy it. Mine output is the ceiling on availability, not a measure of it — integrated producers consume their own feed and several jurisdictions prohibit ore export outright. The reports cover that distinction; this model deliberately does not pretend to.