Lithium — Structural brief

Where lithium is produced

Australia is the largest producer of lithium, at 31.9 percent of the published world total in 2025^[1]. It is followed by China at 21.5 percent, Chile at 19.4 percent and Zimbabwe at 9.7 percent. The USGS puts world production at 290,000 metric tons; the sum of the country figures is 288,380 metric tons, the difference being rounding in the published total.^[1] Reserves are held principally by Chile (9,200,000 metric tons), Australia (8,400,000 metric tons), China (4,600,000 metric tons)^[1]. The largest reserve holder is not the largest producer, which is the usual sign that the constraint is capital and permitting rather than geology.

How concentrated supply is

Measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index over production shares, lithium supply is moderately concentrated, with an index of 2,047. The top three producers hold 72.8 percent of output, and 2 producers together account for half of supply. An index below 1,500 is conventionally read as unconcentrated and above 2,500 as highly concentrated; the thresholds are the United States merger-review bands, used here as a published reference point rather than as a judgement about market conduct. The principal sources of United States imports over 2021–24 were Chile (54 percent) and Argentina (43 percent)^[2]. US imports under HS 283691 (Lithium carbonates) are highly concentrated across supplying countries, with a Herfindahl index of 4,710 and the top three partners supplying 98 percent of value.^[3]

Trade measures in force

The USGS compilation of export controls effective January 2026 records 3 measures bearing on lithium. China maintains an export licensing requirement for materials and technologies covering Antimony (2024), bismuth (2025), synthesized diamond (2025), gallium (2023), germanium (2023), graphite (2023), indium (2025), magnesium materials (2024), molybdenum (2025), rare earths (2025), silver (2026), tellurium (2025), tungsten (2025), and items related to lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials (2025), as compiled by the USGS from official and reported sources effective January 2026.^[4] Namibia maintains an export ban covering Ores and concentrates of cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, and rare earths (2023), as compiled by the USGS from official and reported sources effective January 2026.^[4] Zimbabwe maintains an export ban covering Lithium ore (2022), as compiled by the USGS from official and reported sources effective January 2026.^[4] A control listed here removes the tonnage concerned from the international market by law, whatever the production table implies about availability.

Recent United States official notices

Federal Register documents naming lithium, most recent first. 2025-11-07: Final 2025 List of Critical Minerals. Critical minerals are essential for national security, economic stability, and supply chain resilience because they underpin key industries, drive technological innovation, and support critical infrastructure vital for a modern American economy. The United States is heavily reliant on imports of certain mineral commodities from foreign sources, some of which are at risk of serious, sustained, and long-term supply chain disruptions.^[5]