Aluminum — Structural brief

Where aluminum is produced

China is the largest producer of aluminum, at 60.6 percent of the published world total in 2025^[1]. It is followed by India at 5.7 percent, Russia at 5.3 percent and Canada at 4.4 percent. The USGS puts world production at 74,000 thousand metric tons; the sum of the country figures is 74,210 thousand metric tons, the difference being rounding in the published total.^[1]

How concentrated supply is

Measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index over production shares, aluminum supply is highly concentrated, with an index of 3,877. The top three producers hold 75.7 percent of output, and a single producer accounts for more than half of supply. An index below 1,500 is conventionally read as unconcentrated and above 2,500 as highly concentrated; the thresholds are the United States merger-review bands, used here as a published reference point rather than as a judgement about market conduct. The United States was 60 percent reliant on net imports for aluminum in 2025, with the principal import sources over 2021–24 being Canada, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, China.^[2] The principal sources of United States imports over 2021–24 were Canada (56 percent), United Arab Emirates (8 percent) and Bahrain (4 percent)^[3]. US imports under HS 760200 (Aluminium waste & scrap) are highly concentrated across supplying countries, with a Herfindahl index of 4,952 and the top three partners supplying 91 percent of value.^[4]

Trade measures in force

The USGS compilation of export controls effective January 2026 records 3 measures bearing on aluminum. Morocco maintains an export licensing requirement covering Copper (refined and alloys) and aluminum ingots (2025), as compiled by the USGS from official and reported sources effective January 2026.^[5] Venezuela maintains an export ban covering Bauxite, cassiterite, columbite-tantalite, copper, gold, rhodium, silver, and thorium (2024), as compiled by the USGS from official and reported sources effective January 2026.^[5] Indonesia maintains an export ban covering Bauxite (2023), copper concentrates (2023), and nickel ore (2020), as compiled by the USGS from official and reported sources effective January 2026.^[5] A control listed here removes the tonnage concerned from the international market by law, whatever the production table implies about availability.

Recent United States official notices

Federal Register documents naming aluminum, most recent first. 2025-11-07: Final 2025 List of Critical Minerals. Critical minerals are essential for national security, economic stability, and supply chain resilience because they underpin key industries, drive technological innovation, and support critical infrastructure vital for a modern American economy. The United States is heavily reliant on imports of certain mineral commodities from foreign sources, some of which are at risk of serious, sustained, and long-term supply chain disruptions.^[6]